What is the Mines Games Tips Gambler’s Fallacy?
Gambler’s fallacy is a common bias that some people can fall into. If you’re not careful, it can cost you quite a bit of money over time. Here, we will break down what gambler’s fallacy is and how to avoid it.
Anyone can fall victim to the gambler’s fallacy, regardless of whether they’re playing at a land-based or an online casino.
Defining Gambler’s Fallacy
What is gambler’s fallacy? Gambler’s fallacy – also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy – is the idea that after watching a sequence of random events, the opposite will occur on an independent result.
The best example of the gambler’s fallacy is flipping a coin. If you watch your friend flip a coin eight times, and it lands on tails every time, you might think that heads are due to come up. It can’t be tails every time, right?
While a coin landing on the same side eight times in a row is extremely rare, it does not affect the ninth flip whatsoever. Every flip is a completely independent event.
We can use sports as another example. Let’s say Stephen Curry has missed his first six shots in a game. Does that mean he’s certain to make his next shot because he’s “due?” Absolutely not. Every shot attempt is a completely separate event. Curry’s previous shots have no bearing on whether the next attempt will go in.
The Monte Carlo Fallacy
Why is the gambler’s fallacy sometimes referred to as the Monte Carlo Fallacy? It all goes back to a fateful night in August 1913 at the Monte Carlo Casino in Las Vegas.
During a routine game of roulette, the ball allegedly landed on black a whopping 26 times in a row.
What are the odds of the ball landing on the same color 26 times in a row, you ask? About 1 in 66.6 million.
Gamblers reportedly lost millions of dollars that night betting against black. Because the ball landed on black so many times, surely it had to wind up on red eventually, right? Well…
Where Can You Run Into Gambler’s Fallacy?
As mentioned, one of the most common places you will see the gambler’s fallacy in a casino is at a roulette wheel. People can watch red or black hit multiple times in a row and believe that the opposite color will hit on the next spin.
While multiple hits on one color in a row is uncommon, it does not impact the next spin. No spin is impacted by any previous spins.
Another place some people fall into the gambler’s fallacy is at the slot machines. If you have watched a person play at a certain slot for a long period of time and they have yet to have a winning payout, that does not mean the slot is due for a payout on one of its next spins.
You will also see the gambler’s fallacy come up at the craps table. If you roll the same outcome multiple times in a row, you might think that it is smart to bet against that outcome being rolled again. While some numbers might be more likely to come up on a pair of dice, previous rolls do not impact the next roll.
How to Avoid Gambler’s Fallacy
The best way to avoid falling into the gambler’s fallacy is to remember that previous outcomes have zero impact on the next outcome.
Avoiding betting on an outcome solely because you have seen it come up multiple times in a row is the best way to avoid the gambler’s fallacy.
In most games, previous outcomes do not affect the next outcome. Even experienced bettors can occasionally develop bad habits. Avoiding this dangerous line of thinking is one easy way to improve your gambling skills.